Life in Bangladesh has been brought to a halt by shoot-to-kill curfews to keep the students off the streets. They want job quotas to be done away with, and are willing to fight to the death to have their demands met. The deeper cause of the unrest however is the claustrophobia of the last 15 years of dictatorial government by the Awami League, backed up by the full support of the army.
The Awami League-Army partnership-in-theft was formalized between Sheikh Hasina and Gen Aziz Ahmad [the then Chief of their army] in 2018. With the back of the political opposition broken, there was no way out for the people but to take to the streets to bring about a political change.
In Pakistan, a similar nexus was formalized by Musharraf’s NRO. Though he was not a friend, he was a close enough acquaintance of mine for me to be defensive about him. I was therefore not quite ready to believe that his NRO could have opened him up financially. When I was disabused of this, it was a blow to me.
This partnership between the thugs in our military and those outside grew steadily closer, from one army chief to the next, till in April 2022 the two sets of thugs were so entwined that, but for their attires, it was difficult to tell them apart.
The two great differences between the Bangladesh model and ours is that in their case the military is the junior partner, while with us, it is by far the senior; and in their case, they have yet to incorporate the political opposition in this game of theft by executing a “Charter of Democracy” like our goons have done.
The other great difference is that in Bangladesh, they use their police to do all their killings, abductions, and torture, while we have been using our army to do so. And finally on Jul 19 2024, in Bannu, we set our over-zealous army to make new conquests and fire directly on peaceful protestors.
From April 2022, our army was slowly inching towards the Rubicon. On Jul 19, 2024, the intrepid [or restive] Asim Munir could not help but cross it. In so doing, he plucked the proverbial melon and brought it for the edification of his surly Maharajah. All of you would certainly know what happened next. If you don’t, ask one of the neighbours, and he’ll tell you where it hurt.
On May 30, 2023, I wrote what I thought would happen after the Rubicon was crossed. Nothing has transpired in the interim, to incline me to change my mind, so let me quote that passage: “So, what lies ahead? The short answer is “consequences” lie ahead. Because actions have consequences. For this to become very clear, harken back to the Battle of Uhad. Here an unguarded flank overturned victory into defeat, despite the fact that it was the Holy Prophet whose army was robbed of victory. The lesson to draw from this, if anyone is willing to draw one, is that the Almighty does not play favourites, and that when rules, teachings or laws are infringed, consequences follow. The consequences of what has been inflicted on Pakistan [since April 2022] will soon be seen and felt. But there is not much likelihood of an eruption of civil war, despite the havoc being heaped on the people. It is more likely though that the incipient insurgency in K.P. will spread its wings, and draw any number of ready recruits from the greatly expanded pool of hungry and embittered Pakistanis.
“The performance of our army during the last such upsurge was commendable. But there will be no repeat of that. Then, the people of Pakistan were fully behind their army, but today they are largely alienated. Then, the rank and file had implicit faith in their generalship. But today, after just a fraction of Bajwa’s assets have become common knowledge, suspicion has replaced faith.
“Today, the insurgents in K.P. are likely to stand their ground with greater resolve because this time THEY will have the support of their people. Should this happen, the army will be hesitant to move. Logjams in battle are likely to become the rule for engagements. Sooner or later the army will come to rely on artillery, armour, and the air force to break through. This will create massive casualties among the people. And a simmering insurgency will transition into the first stages of a civil war. And from K.P. the conflagration is likely to spread to other areas. Unpopular armies do not win wars, and least of all civil wars. Just as in 1971 a civil war cost us half our country, the next one for which seeds have been sown, may cost us the other half. A clutch of cowardly dissipated generals, with a like political leadership in tow, drove us into the first civil war. The core reason was that power was wilfully and illegally denied to the party which had the mandate to rule. The result was defeat, surrender, and disgrace.
“Today is a repeat of the old story. The party which clearly enjoys the greatest popularity is being denied power by…. violating the constitution….. for which the punishment is death by hanging. Except that they have displayed the courage to violate Article 6 of the constitution, the generals are equally cowardly and dissipated as they were in 1971, but this time politicians are in front with the generals leading from behind. But there is no difference between the essential ingredients of the powder keg which exploded in 1971 and the one which is simmering today, except that today there is no India between the logistic base and the potential theatre of war. That is the only reason that this time the civil war will begin as a slow burn.
“In short, the aspirations of the people are the same as they were in 1971; and as in 1971 these are being sought to be crushed; and the instrument to do the crushing is also the same. So why is it that the generals are repeating an old experiment with the same ingredients but with the happy expectation of getting a different result? Every general who’s gone down the path to disaster in the past, has done so in the firm belief that earlier generals were blundering buffoons and lacked that spark of genius which he so clearly possesses!”
When the fire in Bangladesh goes cold, its homogeneity will ensure that the state does not break up. This cannot be said about Pakistan with equal certainty. It is therefore vital for Asim Munir to pull back from the Rubicon. His generals need to push back against widening the conflict. Too many of these generals had no part to play in operation regime change in April 2022. They must therefore have all the incentive to keep their hands clean and work towards disengaging the Pakistan Army from the PTI.
The following are the essentials of Pakistan’s conundrum today:
a. A few generals at the top of the hierarchy, which holds a monopoly on kinetic power in the state, are guilty of treason against the state. They are committed to using this power to immunize themselves against the consequences of their guilt. In the deployment and use of this power, they are deepening their criminality, and with it their fear, every passing day.
b. Against these generals are standing Imran Khan and his PTI. Imran Khan has the proven and dedicated support of eighty per cent of the people of Pakistan. He is committed to instituting the rule of law as the central panacea to the country’s problems, without which, he believes, Pakistan will be condemned to remain wallowing in a morass of degradation. No one, including the generals, can deny this. But their unstated position is that the rule of law would be welcome as long as it does not touch them. They would like this assurance from Imran Khan. The longer this is delayed, the longer is becoming the roster of their crimes which they must commit to remain astride the tiger.
So, the stand-off is between the one who holds the monopoly of moral power in the country [inspired by an ideal], and those who hold the monopoly of kinetic power which is driven by fear.
If this stand-off is not stood down, there is a chance that the steadily escalating situation could eventually lead to the unravelling of the very state that everyone is so busy trying to save. It must be conceded that without Pakistan, nothing else will matter anyhow.
In such a situation, wisdom may be gleaned from Abraham Lincoln’s famous quote: “When you have an elephant by his hind leg, and he is trying to run away, it’s best to let him run.”
Imran’s commitment to the rule of law and the fear of the generals should both be met halfway so that the desired disengagement between the two can be brought about. Thus far, bringing this about is still within the realm of possibility. Soon the situation may escalate and go beyond anyone’s power to rein it in. That point should not be reached. The generals will certainly have to leave. The only issue is how much damage will they do before being forced out. The aim should be to reduce this damage to the minimum.
Imran should therefore assure the generals that they can try those among them who are guilty of treason, under the army’s own judicial mechanism, without pressure from him. The generals on their part should lean on the government to immediately release all the innocents which it has kept in jails. They should further withdraw the ISI and the MI from the “executive” operations of the government and let the government handle its own affairs without any army support. And lastly, they should put to pasture people like Qazi Faez Isa, Sikander Sultan Raja, and Mohsin Naqvi etc as well as some other enemies of the state, while allowing the courts to function freely. And the courts should begin with a thorough audit of the Feb 8 elections.
Imran Khan should set out his position with great precision and brevity and have it published. He should then leave it to the generals to respond. If Asim Munir and company are moved by even a grain of sincerity, their response will make this clear.
p.s. A vast majority of the generals who were not involved in Operation Regime Change may be unaware of this, but they have no reason to shudder with fear unless they are now doing so by force of habit. It is therefore they who can play the tie-breakers between Imran and Asim, and render a singular service to their country in its greatest hour of need. They need to encourage Asim Munir to sneak out of Pakistan when no one is looking. To sweeten the pie he should be allowed to keep the plane in which he flees. Getting rid of his odious presence should be considered an invaluable enough gift in itself.