It was known of Gen Colin Powell that when preparing an operation plan [war], the first question he would examine was how he would get out, after he had got in i.e an exit strategy. And so when Vice President Dick Cheney had assimilated most of the Presidential powers and ordered the Joint Chiefs to prepare plans for an attack on Iran in 2007, there was consternation among the U.S high command. They had sound reasons why not to get into such a misadventure irrespective of the urging of the neocons.
It was Admiral Fallon, Commander Centcom, who brought calm to the nerves of his colleagues. He suggested that when the plan for an attack on Iran was finalized and put up for Cheney’s consideration, it should be left to the V.P to provide an exit strategy. Cheney failed to provide one. And so, the invasion of Iran was averted i.e because he did not have any idea how a war on Iran would be brought to an end, the war did not begin.
So, one is constrained to meditate whether our army war-gamed its “operation regime change” before launching it? And if so, did they have an endgame in sight? In short, were they subjecting Pakistan to a surgeon’s knife, which may go deep, or to an assailant’s club, which does not penetrate the skin, but shatters the skull.
Was there to be some blood, or endless bloodshed?
How they choreographed the “May 9nth” drama speaks to utter and incredible incompetence. And how they propagated it, to shamelessness beyond belief.
This would lead one to conclude that they did not think through the consequences of operation regime change. So obviously they do not have an end game in sight. They are plodding on from one blunder to the next, applying stitches as they go along.
The guiding strategy of today seems to be the macho strategy employed against the Bengalis in 1971: “in ke sath aisa ho ga keh hazar saal koi sar nahin utha sakay ga.” They seem to have forgotten that a few months down the line we were defeated, our army laid down its arms, and our men [many a true hero among them] were marched off to POW camps.
Handing Pakistan over to the tender mercies of thieves and cutthroats was an assault on Pakistan. This is what treachery is. This we must not forget. And whether we can see an end game or not, we must always remember what got the game started in the first place: a regime was toppled at the behest of a foreign power primarily for geopolitical considerations, through the agency of one or more senior officers whose loyalties had been subverted by this foreign power. Period.
And the longer they stay at the top, the longer becomes the roster of the crimes they must commit to stay there, and thus the more determined their intent not to get off.
The enormity of the blunder committed was soon realized by them, when a course correction was still possible, but the very realization of this enormity, of the treachery committed by them, barred their retreat. The choice that lay open to them was that of saving their necks, or retrieving Pakistan. And the choice they made was to save their necks and dump Pakistan.
The option of elections under a deliberately fraudulent and mangled system is the worst of all choices. It carries all the viruses of a fraud without any of the redeeming features of a democracy. A straight-out imposition of martial law would be better than foisting and then fostering a fraud.
If they decide to go the way of elections, these should be totally free and completely fair. Otherwise, millions of embittered youth with dashed hopes will seek empowerment by gravitating into the waiting arms of the many skeletal Jihadi organizations. Plumes of smoke will begin to rise as the first signs of civil unrest, which could lead to civil war. This would be beyond Pakistan’s fault lines to bear.
The decision to be taken will be by the army. They have NOT LEFT THEMSELVES IN ANY POSITION to decide in favour of their country. So, if ever there was a time for an NRO with cast iron guarantees of immunity, that time is now. And they should be given it, because we and our country are hostages to them. At times it is better to give in to blackmail.
Pakistan is a mountain covered by crooks. It may be best for the moment to add a few more crooks to that cover in order to save the mountain.
I see no other way out. The balance of forces is too unequal at present, though this will not remain so forever.